Skip to content 
The data from the Orange County Clerk of the Court and the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse reveals that 2024 was a year of “stubbornly high” eviction activity, setting the stage for the market shifts we are witnessing in early 2026.
The Data: Orange County Evictions in 2024
In 2024, Orange County recorded a total of approximately 15,039 eviction filings. This represented a modest 6-7% decrease from the all-time record set in 2023 (~16,080 filings), but remained roughly 14% higher than pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
As shown in the chart, filings peaked in January (1,475) and remained elevated throughout the summer, only dipping significantly in March and November. This persistence indicated that the post-pandemic “eviction wave” did not simply crash, but rather settled into a new, higher baseline of housing instability.
2024 vs. 2025: A Deep Dive into the Shift
| Feature | 2024: The Plateau | 2025/26: The Rebalancing |
| Eviction Volume | High but slightly declining (~15k). | Volatile; high spikes (Jan 25 hit 1,510). |
| Rental Market | Rents peaked; vacancy was very low. | Rents flattened or fell ~2%; supply increased. |
| Investor Sentiment | Cautiously holding or “waiting.” | Investor Exodus: Purchases down 50-70%. |
| Home Prices | Hit all-time high ($407k in early 24). | Softening; median down to ~$387k by late 25. |
| Market Status | Seller’s Market / Transition. | Buyer’s Market (5.5+ month supply). |
The Core Differences
-
The Culmination of Costs: In 2024, tenants were struggling with the initial shock of 20% rent hikes. By 2025 and 2026, the cumulative effect of insurance premiums doubling and property taxes rising has pushed both landlords and tenants to a breaking point.
-
From Renter to Buyer Stress: While 2024 was defined by rental evictions, 2025 and early 2026 have seen a surge in foreclosure filings, with Florida now leading the U.S. in this category. This suggests the distress has moved from the rental market into the ownership market.
Potential Outcomes for the Florida Market
1. The “Shadow Inventory” Pricing Pressure
Rising evictions and foreclosures are creating a “shadow inventory.” As investors exit (Orlando investor purchases are down over 50% from the peak), these rental units are being listed for sale. This surge in supply, coupled with homes sitting on the market for an average of 82+ days, is the primary driver behind falling home prices.
2. Rent vs. Buy Equilibrium
For the first time in years, the “Buy” side is becoming competitive again. In many Orlando neighborhoods, the gap between a monthly mortgage and rent has narrowed to just $200–$350. If evictions continue to rise and rents soften further, we may see a “flight to quality” where stable tenants choose to purchase distressed inventory, eventually bottoming out the price declines.
3. Regional “Correction” vs. “Crash”
The consensus among experts like Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor is that we are in a rebalancing phase rather than a 2008-style crash. While some models predict local price drops of 5% to 13%, others foresee a modest rebound by late 2026 as mortgage rates stabilize in the low 6% range.
Summary: The high eviction rates of 2024 were the “canary in the coal mine.” They signaled that the local economy could no longer support the pandemic-inflated housing costs. In 2026, we are seeing the logical conclusion: a cooling market where buyers finally have the leverage that was lost years ago.
